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Selected References

• Andrews, D.J. and Schwerer, E., unpublished manuscript, Probability of rupture of multiple fault segments.
• Arnodottir, T., Segall, P., Matthews, M., 1992, Resolving the discrepancy between geodetic and seismic fault models for the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 82, p. 2248-2255.
• Bakun, W., 1999, Seismic Activity of the San Francisco Bay Region, Bulletin Seismological Society of America, v. 89, p. 764-784.
• Beanland, S., and Clark, M. M., 1994, The Owens Valley fault zone and surface rupture in the Inyo County, California earthquake of 1872: U. S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1982, 29 p.
• Borchardt, G., 1999, Holocene slip rate of the Concord fault at Galindo Creek in Concord, California: U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, Annual Project Summaries, v. 40, Award # 1434-HQ-97-GR-03102, 5 p.
• Bufe, C.G., and Varnes, D. J., 1993, Predictive modelling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay region: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 98, p. 9871-9883.
• Cox, D. R. and P. A. Lewis, 1966, The Statistical Analysis of a Series of Events: Methuen, London.
• Dolan, J. F. et al., 1995, Prospects for larger or more frequent earthquakes in the Los Angeles metropolitan region: Science, v. 267, p. 199-205.
• Ellsworth, W.L., M.V. Matthews, R.M. Nadeau, S.P. Nishenko, P.A. Reasenberg and R.W. Simpson, 1998, A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities, Proceedings of the Second Joint Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research, 135-149.
• Frankel, A., Mueller, C., Barnhard, T., Perkins, D., Leyendecker, E.V., Dickman, N. Hanson, S., and Hopper, M., 1996, National Seismic Hazard Maps: Documentation June 1996: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96-532, 44 p.
• Freymueller, J., King, N. E., Segall, P., 1994, The co-seismic slip distribution of the Landers earthquake: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 84, p. 646-659.
• Galehouse, J. S., 1997, Effect of the Loma Prieta earthquake on fault creep rates in the San Francisco Bay region, U.S. Geological Survey Profess. Pap.1550D, 193-207.
• Hall, N. T., Wright, R. H., and Clahan, K. B., 1999 in press, Paleoseismic studies of the San Francisco peninsula segment of the San Andreas fault zone near Woodside, California: Journal of Geophysical Research.
• Harris, R.A. and Simpson, R.W., 1998, Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: a comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 103, p. 24,439-24,451.
• Hayward Fault Paleoearthquake Group, 1999, Timing of paleoearthquakes on the northern Hayward fault–preliminary evidence in El Cerrito, California, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-318, 34 p.
• Hudnut, K.W., et al., 1994, Co-seismic displacements of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 84, p. 625-645.
• Jaume, S.C., and Sykes, L.R., 1996, Evolution of moderate seismicity in the San Francisco Bay region, 1850 to 1993: Seismicity changes related to the occurrence of large and great earthquakes: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 101, p. 765-789.
• Kanamori, H., and C. R. Allen, 1986, Earthquake repeat time and average stress drop: in Das, S., J. Boatwright, and C. Scholz, eds., Earthquake source mechanics, American Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph, 37, p. 227-235.
• Kelson, K. I., Simpson, G. D., Lettis, W. R., and Haraden, C. C., 1996, Holocene slip rate and recurrence of the northern Calaveras fault at Leyden Creek, eastern San Francisco Bay region: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 101, no. B3, p. 5961-5975.
• Kelson, K. I., et al., 1998, Late Holocene slip rate and amounts of coseismic rupture along the central Calaveras fault, San Francisco Bay area, California: Final Technical Report submitted to the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, Award Number 1434-HQ-97-GR-03151, p. 26 pp.
• King, N.E., and Thatcher, W., 1998, The coseismic slip distributions of the 1940 and 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquakes and their implications: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 103, p. 18,069-18,086.
• Lienkaemper, J. J., and Borchardt, G., 1996, Holocene slip rate of the Hayward fault at Union City, California: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 101, no. B3, p. 6099-6108.
• Lindh, A.G., 1983, Preliminary assessment of long-term probabilities for large earthquakes along selected segments of the San Andreas fault system in California: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 83-63, p. 1-15.
• Lisowski, M., Prescott, W.H., Savage, J.C., and Johnston, M.J., 1990, Geodetic estimate of coseismic slip during the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 17, p. 1437-1440.
• Matthews, M.V., 1999, A stochastic model for recurrent earthquakes, unpublished manuscript.
• Michael, A. J., Ross, S. L., Schwartz, D. P., Hendley, J. W., II, and Stauffer, P. H., 1999, Major quake likely to strike between 2000 and 2030——Understanding Earthquake Hazards in the San Francisco Bay Region, U. S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 152-99, 4 p.
• Nishenko, S.P. and R.A. Buland, 1987, A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting: Bulletin Seismological Society of America, v. 77, p. 1382-1399.
• Oppenheimer, D. H., Bakun, W. H., and Lindh, A. G., 1990, Slip partitioning of the Calaveras fault, California, and prospects for future earthquakes: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 95, no. B6, p. 8483-8498.
• Petersen, M.D., Bryant, W.A., Cramer, C.H., Cao, T., Reichle, M.S., Frankel, A.D., Lienkaemper, J.J., McCrory, P.A., and Schwartz, D.P, 1996, Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the State of California: California Division of Mines and Geology Open-File Report 96-08 published jointly as U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96-706, 59 p.
• Prescott, W. H., and M. Lisowski, 1983, Strain accumulation along the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, California: Tectonophysics, v. 97, p. 41-56.
• Reasenberg, P.A., and Jones, L.M., 1989, Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California: Science, v. 243, p. 1173-1176.
• Reasenberg, P.A., and Jones, L.M., 1994, Earthquake aftershocks--Update: Science, v. 265,. p. 1251-1252.
• Reid, H. F., 1910, The Mechanics of the Earthquake, The California earthquake of April 18, 1906: Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission (Volume II): Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication No. 87, 192 p.
• Sammis, C.G., Sornette, D., and Saleur, H., 1996, Complexity and earthquake forecasting, in Rundle, J.B., Klein, W., and Turcotte, D.L., eds., Reduction and Predictability of Natural Disasters, SFI Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, v. XXV: Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass., pp. 143-156.
• Schwartz, D. P., Pantosti, D., Hecker, S., Okamura, K., Budding, K. E., and Powers, T., 1993, Late Holocene behavior and seismogenic potential of the Rodgers Creek fault zone, Sonoma County, California: California Division of Mines and Geology Special Publication, v. 113, p. 393-398.
• Schwartz, D. P., Pantosti, D., Okumura, K., Powers, T., and Hamilton, J., 1998, Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz Mountains: Implications for the recurrence of large magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 103, p. 17,985-18,001.
• Shimazaki, K., and Nakata, T., 1980, Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 7, p. 279-282.
• Sieh, K.E., 1978, Slip along the San Andreas fault associated with the great 1857 earthquake: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 68, p. 1421-1448.
• Simpson, G. D., Thompson, S. C., Noller, J. S., Lettis, W. R., Williams, 1998, The northern San Gregorio fault zone: Evidence for the timing of late Holocene earthquakes near Seal Cove, California: Bulletin Seismological Society of America, v. 87, no. 5, p. 1158-1170.
• Sommerville, P., Irikura, K. Graves, R. Sawada, S. Wald, D. Abrahamson, N Iwasaki, Y. Kagawa, T. Smith, N. and Kowada, A., 1999, Characterizing crustal earthquake slip models for prediction of strong ground motion: Seismological Research Letters, v. 70, no. 1, p. 59-80.
• Stein, R.S., Barka, A.A., and Dieterich, J.H., 1997, Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering: Geophysical Journal International, v. 128, p. 594-604.
• Stein, R.S., and Hanks, T.C., 1998, M>=6 earthquakes in southern California during the twentieth century: no evidence for a seismicity or moment deficit: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 88, p. 635-652.
• Sykes, L.R., and Nishenko, S.P., 1984, Probabilities of occurrence of large plate rupturing earthquakes for the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Imperial faults, California: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 89, p. 5905-5927.
• Thatcher, W., Marshall, G., Lisowski, M., 1997, Resolution of fault slip along the 470-km-long rupture of the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake and its implications: Journal of Geophysical Research v. 102, p.5353-5367.
• Toda, S., Stein, R. S., Reasenberg, P. A., Dieterich, J. H., and Yoshida, A., 1998, Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw=6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 103, p. 24,543-24,565.
• Toppozada, T. R., and Borchardt, G., 1998, Re-evaluation of the 1836 "Hayward Fault" earthquake and the 1838 San Andreas Fault earthquake: Bulletin Seismological Society of America, v. 88, 140-159.
• Unruh, J. R., and Sawyer, T. L., 1998, Paleoseismic investigation of the northern Greenville fault, Eastern San Francisco Bay area, California: Final Technical Report, U.S. Geological Survey, Award 1434-HQ-97-GR-03146, 34 p.
• Wakabayashi, J. and J. Hengesh, 1995, Distribution of late Cenozoic displacement on the San Andreas fault system, northern California: Special Publication Pacific Section, Society of Economic Paleontologists and Mineralogists, v. 76, p. 19-29.
• Wald, D. J., Kanamori, H., Helmberger, D. V., and Heaton, T. H., 1993, Source study of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake: Bulletin Seismological Society of America, v. 83, no. 4, p. 981-1019.
• Ward, S., 1999, San Francisco Bay Area earthquake simulations: A step towards a standard physical earthquake model: Bulletin Seismological Society of America, in press.
• Weber, G. E., 1980, Recurrence intervals and recency of faulting along the San Gregorio fault zone, San Mateo County, California [Ph.D. dissertation]: University of California, Santa Cruz, 204 p.
• Weber, G. E., and Nolan, J. M., 1995, Determination of late Pleistocene-Holocene slip rates along the San Gregorio fault zone, San Mateo County, California: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 95-210, p. 805-807.
• Wells, D. L., and Coppersmith, K. J., 1994, New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement: Seismological Society of America Bulletin, v. 84, no. 4, p. 974-1002.
• Wesson, R. L., W.H. Bakun and Perkins, D.A.,. Manuscript in preparation, Estimating the frequency-magnitude relation and probabilities for the background earthquake from historic seismicity data.
• Williams, P. L., 1993, Geologic record of southern Hayward fault earthquakes: California Division of Mines and Geology Special Publication, v. 113, p. 171-179.
• Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1988, Probabilities of large earthquakes occurring in California on the San Andreas fault, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 88-398.
• Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1990, Probabilities of large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region, California: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1053, 51 pp.
• Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1995, Seismic hazards in southern California: probable earthquakes, 1994-2024, Bulletin Seismological Society of America, v. 85, p. 379-439.
• Working Group on Northern California Earthquake Potential, 1996, Database of potential sources for earthquakes larger than magnitude 6 in northern California, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Rep. 96-705, 53 p. Browse and download at: http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/hazprep/NCEP/
• Wright, R. H., Hamilton, D. H., Hunt, T. D., Traubenik, M. L., and Shlemon, R. J., 1982, Character and activity of the Greenville structural trend: California Division of Mines and Geology Special Publication, v. 62, p. 187-196.
• Yu, E. and Segall, P., 1996, Slip in the 1868 Hayward earthquake from the analysis of historical triangulation data: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 101, p. 16101-16118.
• Zoback, M. L., Jachens, R. C., and Olson, J. A., 1999, Abrupt along-strike change in tectonic style: San Andreas fault zone, San Francisco Peninsula: Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 104, p. 10719-10742.